Opinion
Recent polling indicates that President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are struggling to maintain support among key voting blocs – including blacks, Hispanics, and voters under 35.
Mainstream media is trying to downplay the significance of the poll numbers by suggesting that those groups, whom Democrats traditionally rely on for presidential elections, will eventually come around and blindly vote for their party.
By way of example, one of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 advisers told theGrio, “Nothing in any of the recent polls dissuades the belief that there’s a path for Biden to get to the win numbers that he needs with Black voters, with young voters, and the overall electorate.”
But will they? The Political Insider spoke to our experts on the matter, and they disagree.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll released at the beginning of the year shows Biden experiencing what they describe as a “fraying coalition.”
“President Joe Biden heads into the election year showing alarming weakness among stalwarts of the Democratic base, with Donald Trump leading among Hispanic voters and young people,” the outlet reports. “One in 5 Black voters now say they’ll support a third-party candidate in November.”
RELATED: Experts Split On New Poll Showing Black, Hispanic, and Young Voters Abandoning Biden
Democrat Experts Downplay The Significance Of Polls Showing Biden Losing Support Of Key Voters
Democrat political strategists attempted to downplay the significance of these new polls showing Biden and Harris hemorrhaging support from their traditionally reliable voters, those that check off demographic boxes that they constantly play to.
Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist who worked on Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 presidential campaign, ran to theGrio to suggest no, the sky is not falling.
“That’s not what the electorate is going to typically look like,” he said, basing his comments on past performance.
Payne also notes that the aforementioned USA Today poll indicates a significant percentage (20% Hispanic and Black voters, and 21% young voters) of registered voters are flirting with the idea of not voting for Biden or Trump, and instead opting for a third-party candidate.
theGrio’s expert implies that the vast majority of voters dismayed with the two party’s candidates will shift to the Democrats.
“There’s a path for Biden to get back to his win number … because those voters are not likely to abandon Biden in mass and go to Trump,” said Payne.
RELATED: New York Times Frets Over Their Own Poll Showing Trump Earning Support From Black Voters ‘Unseen … In Modern Times’
Here’s What Actual Experts Tell The Political Insider
The Political Insider spoke to our own experts on the subject matter, and their responses do seem to indicate that yes, the polls showing Biden and Harris struggling with minority and young voters are rather complicated.
Cornell University Professor William Jacobson expressed skepticism that these polls will lead to victory for Trump in 2024.
“I think it’s too early to tell if this is a real realignment or a mirage. We saw similar claims in 2020, and there was no realignment among black voters,” he told The Political Insider.
“As of now it’s all hypothetical among voters, and Democrats have not yet unleashed their campaign against Trump,” he continued. “So I wouldn’t get too excited.”
Mark Mitchell, head pollster for Rasmussen Reports, sees a slightly more positive outlook for Trump than Professor Jacobson.
“Our latest 2024 matchup has Biden winning black voters by only 22 points, and Trump wins with Hispanic voters by 23 points. Those are massive advantages for Trump over previous elections, and if they hold, they make Trump unbeatable,” Mitchell said of their latest poll.
“While it’s true that focusing on abortion might be a good strategy for Biden to win back some of these voters, the truth is that there is probably an equal or larger opportunity for Trump to keep them by focusing on the issue of illegal immigration,” he added.
“Our tracking index of US sentiment towards immigration, Sponsored by NumbersUSA, is near the lowest it has been since Biden was elected, despite the fact that black and Hispanic voters’ opinions are relatively unchanged on the issue,” Jacobson concluded.
To Professor Jacobson’s point, we certainly did hear from right-leaning media in 2020 that a massive wave of black and Hispanic voters was going to carry Trump to victory.
Multiple polls from around the same timeframe before the 2020 presidential election showed Trump earning over 30% support from black voters.
Biden, however, earned 92% of the black vote, nearly indiscernible from the turnout and support for past Democrat presidential candidates.
Likewise, support for Biden from Hispanic voters hit 66% compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016, when she earned 65% of their vote.
It isn’t just the USA Today poll showing Biden and Harris losing support with black voters, however.
A New York Times poll from November shows support for Trump from black voters is approaching unheard-of heights.
“Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times,” the Times worried.
What do you think? Are these polls something to be encouraged by or should we not put so much stock in them? Tell us in the comments section below and across social media.
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